Thursday, May 17, 2007

Full Tilt PokerBot Scandal Post-Mortem (Part I)

Now that the roar is dying down (Full Tilt Pokerbots(?) at Two Plus Two Forums), I thought I'd wrap it all up with what I, as a bot operator, have found interesting in this monstrous debate.

#1. "...As for 1forthethumb and mariojr, I've not only played with both of them but have talked to both of them..."

Most players still believe that a few replies in the chat window "prove" your bot is a human. You should already know how easy it is to inject a few semi-random chat messages now and then. Don't get carried away, however. Lack of response is less suspicious than a nonsensical or repetitive response.

#2. "...I mostly ignored bot issues because I agreed with the popular sentiment at the time that it was just too complicated to program a bot to play well at an kind of meaningful stakes...."

The players WANT to be deceived. They have self-inflated egos that have convinced their Id that they're some sort of super-human poker calculator...pulling information from the ether, evidently. All we have to do is lay low and allow them to believe this. Just as a fish can't believe he isn't a winner, these winning players can't believe their winning isn't the result of their own extraordinary talents.
Are these players making decisions outside the realm of what most bots do? Of course, but there is no guarantee they are making the correct decision. For many low stake players, they are talking themselves into exploitable bad plays much more often than they think...they seem to believe that the amount of thought put into a decision is a direct indicator of the QUALITY of the final decision. With the human mind, this is not the case.

#3. If you get mentioned on a forum. SHUT UP.

Don't be BrandonJoseph from the main thread, trying to spin the conversation to avert suspicion. It doesn't work and it will never work. Just keep your mouth closed. You will only give them more information by which to convict you. The forum lynch mob can't clear your name...but they can sure convict you and force the site into action. Let it die!

#4. "...30,000 hands, same site, three different players logging on at the same time, logging off at the same time, and not playing at the same table for any one of those hands?..."

If you do something so obvious, you deserve to get caught. It may take awhile for the players to catch on, but the sites are well aware. Don't rely on the site operators lax attitude. It can change on a whim and I will tell you from experience that some sites will catch you and then not take action until you've either reloaded the account for a bonus offer, or you've attempted a cash out.

#5. Players don't understand the economy of large numbers.

It's clear from this thread that many, if not most, players don't understand the scale of how a bot farm works. These players are driven to move up stakes as quickly as they comfortably can, and they assume your bot is doing the same. They simply do not understand that you can make a six figure salary mining micro stakes where each table is earning $.25/hour.
Could I move up limits with my bots? More than likely, but should I spend 100 man hours coding and testing this move, or should I spend 100 hours dropping 10 more computers (80+ tables) into my war room? The choice is easy at even the smallest of limits until you run out of IP's or funding accounts.

I will break here before this post gets out of hand. So far we've only scratched the surface of this thread. More analysis to follow.



Tuesday, May 15, 2007

More Pokerbots Found at Fulltilt? *whistles innocently*

Alan Bostick, an interesting blogger currently writing at As I Please gives us a bit more information on the Full Tilt bot scandal(s).

2+2's favorite tinfoil hat wearer, MrGatorade, is on the witch hunt. He doesn't give criteria, just rattles off a bunch of names of heads-up poker bots at Full Tilt.

Full details at As I Please.



Thursday, May 10, 2007

Full Tilt Rep Responds to Poker Bot Accusations

Full Tilt Poker representative "FTPSean" responds to the angry mob at Two Plus Two. As you've come to expect from Full Tilt poker, there isn't much substance.

I'll spare you FTPSean's corporate-customer-service-speak and jump right to his bullet points.

  • During the investigation we found the evidence to be inconclusive in supporting either determination (human or bot).
  • After careful consideration, the evidence did not warrant the seizure of funds and permanent account closure.
  • We stand by our decision. Having said that, re-opening an account after an investigation such as this one does not mean we have made an irreversible decision. We will continue to reevaluate this situation.

Not too exciting, but Full Tilt is in damage control mode...I'm surprised they replied at all.

FTPSean's full post can be found at the Two Plus Two Forums .

Full details in my earlier coverage here: Full Tilt Poker Bots


Full Tilt Poker Bots (?) at Two Plus Two Forums


A massive thread at Two Plus Two regarding poker bots at Full Tilt Poker has exploded. You can read the 1,500+ replies, or see my summation below.

An observant human player (SukitTrebek) noticed some statistical similarities in the play of 1forthethumb, full_tilting, mariojr, and 0_Drunkenboxer. When I say similarities, I mean SIMILARITIES. Their stats on all streets are nearly identical over 100k hand samples each. This is a link to SukitTrebek's collected stats...decide for yourself.

SukitTrebek reports his findings to Full Tilt. The suspected bot players disappear, and Trebek assumes they are banned. 1 month later, the entire crew of accounts re-appears at the same time and returns to grinding more hands of $200NL than anyone else for 1.5bb/100.

Suspicious? Oh yes. You really shouldn't continue reading until you take a look at the stats

When the bots return, Trebek breaks his silence and the NL Bots on Full Tilt thread is born. Read Trebek's original post if for no other reason than to know what a player will go through to catch you. Full_tilter and a buddy chime in to profess their innocence, backed by Nation, a Two Plus Two forum moderator that claims to know them in person and "knows" they do not run bots.

What do I think? I can tell you right now that something fishy is going on with their stats. These guys have posted stats over 100k samples that are more similiar than any I've been able to find on ANY of my bots, and I'm admitting they are un-tilting, automatons. I've run bots for 1M hands with untouched logic code without 100k runs this similiar. If these guys are bots (or a sweatshop...there's no difference) then they are following a script, but one that is horribly static and has almost no regard for the texture of the board or styles of the opponents around them.

The only way I can see a bot with such similiar statistics is if they are using only the number of actions in the hand and their hand strength to make decisions. They obviously don't use the bet amount as a decision making tool as hand histories have been posted showing them folding to minimum bets and raises in a way that no sane player would.

In other words, folks, this is a horrible bot/script/sweatshop. There are so many factors of the game that they are obviously ignoring and they are still turning a considerable profit at $200NL, a game and limit that most ignorant human players thought was untouchable by bots. full_tilter and his crew have done it successfully and as you've seen from their stats, they are making some downright horrible plays. They are continuation betting 97% of the time at $200NL for example.

Update: A Full Tilt representative has responded. Read my article Full Tilt Rep Responds to Poker Bot Allegations.





Wednesday, April 18, 2007

Full Tilt Poker Rep Answers 4/17

Full Tilt Representative, "FTPDoug", popped in at the Zoo to answer some questions about Full Tilt's recent upgrades and their plans for improving online poker for their players in the future.

Information of interest:
  • New default fonts for all table sizes. Less eye strain for you grinders, easier text scraping for you botters.
  • The latest client shows a move away from being datamining friendly, as it does not elegantly handle tiling tables in play while keeping observed tables safely tucked away.
  • Pot-limit Hold'em will be spread up to $5/$10 soon. Possibly this week.

For complete details, and the ensuing gnashing of teeth by the unsatisfied masses, visit the Two Plus Two Poker Forum.